Monday's Musings: The Roaring 20's and the #Futureof2020

December 23, 2019

With a new decade in front of us, what happens when the confluence of politics, economics, society, technology, environmental, and legislative forces meet the forces of humanity? Here are seven deep trends that will emerge to impact the next decade and more:

1. Human Ingenuity vs Intelligent Automation

In a world of AI possibilities and pervasive technology, when will society automate, augment a machine with a human, augment a human with a machine, and fully trust human ingenuity? This question will impact the future of humanity. Should society over rely on automation, will humans lose the ability to gain intuition, will society become dumber, do humans become over-reliant on technology? Will intelligent automation widen the gap between the smart and the less intelligent? Do we create further digital divides? Over time, AI ethics will emerge taking people centered principles.

https://vimeo.com/381346661

2. Autonomous Decade

The future is autonomous. Machines will deliver services that are continuous, auto-compliant, self-healing, self-learning, and self-aware. The need for greater precision decisions will require connections to data-driven digital networks and for more and more sources of data. This battle for public, private, and shared data will shape who wins in new networked economies.

https://vimeo.com/381347977

3. Authenticity vs Deep Fakes

In this world of relativism and enhanced technologies, humans can no longer discern authenticity. The blurred line between reality and fiction creates issues that can cause riots, incite violence, sway public opinion, and bilk others of value. The need for authenticity still remains and those brands, enterprises, and individuals who can deliver authenticity will win over trust and significant business.

https://vimeo.com/381347638

4. The US vs China, Open Vs Closed

China's salvo to dominate the world models after how colonial powers ruled the past and how America rose to the top. From infrastructure investments to trade deals to foreign affairs, this new war for ideas is more than just open vs closed. China seeks to ensure its relevance and future before its population dynamics turn it into Japan. In the US-China trade-war, the implications move beyond just trade:

  1. Currency manipulation
  2. IP theft
  3. Access to China markets
  4. Reserve currency for dictatorships
  5. HK protests
  6. Spratly Islands debate
  7. Belt & road
  8. Battle for Africa
  9. Freedom of Taiwan
  10. AI dictatorships

However, like the Soviet Union in the 1950's and 1960's, many are attracted to the opportunities for personal enrichment at the expense of personal freedoms. This war for ideas with a backset of socialism vs capitalism will play out in the 2020's

https://vimeo.com/381348743

5. Stakeholder vs Shareholder Capitalism

The shift away from shareholder capitalism represents a backlash towards extreme capitalism in a winner takes all market. In simplistic terms shareholders own a part of the company while stakeholders have an interest in the performance of the company. Today's wide definition of stakeholders includes employees, suppliers, the environment, and other ecosystem players. With the growing societal discontent in play and businesses caught in the cross-fire, organizations such as the Business Roundtable and World Economic Forum have embraced the stakeholder capitalism theme and mantra as a potential solution to the inequities in the market as well as addressing societal ills exacerbated by political systems and ineffective government leadership. Unfortunately a real divide will occur when institutional investors challenge the effectiveness and performance of stakeholder capitalism run companies vs shareholder run companies.

https://vimeo.com/381349700

6. A Culture of Abundance Vs A Culture of Scarcity

The recent societal unrest and backlash against institutions has come from those who experience a culture of abundance and those who experience a culture of scarcity. Because basic needs are met and expectations often remain low in a culture of abundance, individuals are more willing to share, collaborate, take time to build long-term relationships. In a culture of scarcity, individuals fight for basic needs and create defenses and alliances of mutual self-interest. With rising expectations and a culture of entitlement, the recent societal unrest have come from a belief that injustice, inequality, and divide have come from those who live in a culture of abundance and that those in a culture of scarcity must attack those who are successful. Add mistrust of today's systems and institutions, and society now must fight to defend a culture of hard work and meritocracy versus identity politics and social injustice.

https://vimeo.com/381349439

7. Privacy as a Property Right

Data driven digital networks power most new companies and startups. Data to date has mostly been a free natural resource. As organizations have mined individual's digital exhaust, digital foot print, genomic data, and personal information for profit without payment, a movement to make privacy a human right has taken hold. However, existing laws to govern this right vary from authority to authority and the policies remain inconsistent. Yet, should individual privacy data become a property right such as land titles for physical property and patents for intellectual property, existing laws could apply. Individuals would then have the authority to not sell, donate, provide one-time access, provide recurring access, or provide life-time access for value exchange. One caveat, in this model, only the rich would have privacy as they would not need to broker their data for monetary and non-monetary value exchange.

https://vimeo.com/381349134

The Bottom Line: Digital Divides, Winner Takes All, and Duopolies Will Dominate The Decade

Capitalism as one knows it has shifted from free markets to an extreme winner takes all market. Massive concentration of power by the mega investor class has exponentially skewed the market.  In fact, the largest 30 shareholders control 51.4% of the assets of 300 publicly traded companies, with 1.5% of those shareholders controlling 51% of shares.  Companies are incessantly being asked by these shareholders to pay out greater and greater short-term profits at the expense of long term investment and growth.

To add insult to injury, these same investors hedge their bets by demanding more returns and stripping the profits out of their cash cow portfolio companies to fund disruptive startups in the same or adjacent markets.   These well-funded startups often run large losses to take market share and cripple incumbents in their race for market dominance.  While it may have taken previous businesses decades to emerge as oligopolies or duopolies through natural market forces, today’s investors and founders craft every one of these startups to be a monopoly on day one.  The investor class mainly funds startups that can rapidly achieve monopolistic positions. 

Meanwhile, the digital transformation revolution has gone mainstream.  In this post-digital era, every startup begins as a data driven network (DDN) where data and insight fuel growth and power market dominance. DDNs build massive digital feedback loops for all stakeholders (e.g. customers, employee, suppliers, and partners) and use this insight to mitigate risk, identify new opportunities, improve operational efficiency, anticipate what features buyers may want next, and drive dynamic pricing.  Applying technologies such as AI and the cloud to scale, these organizations use their scale in automated decisions to dominate markets.

As these DDNs grow, their data and insights give them exponential advantage and their monopolistic powers increase.  This is why companies such as Google continue to dominate search, Facebook remains a leader in social, Alibaba dominates digital payments.  Using this dominance, each DDN will enter new markets and value chains that bring a powerful aggregation of capital, customer, content, network ecosystem, technology, and talent together.

The emergence of these market forces create ripple effects even among the winners of digital transformation.  For example, Domino’s Pizza who’s stock was one of the best performing since 2010 faces an onslaught by these DDNs.  Domino’s beat its duopoly rival Pizza Hut with massive investment in new business models, digital technologies, and product innovations over a decade.   By all accounts, Domino’s succeeded at digital transformation emerging as the 5th most popular ecommerce site in the United States, out performing tech stock in returns, and gaining market share among rivals.

However, companies like Domino’s may be ill prepared to win against DDN startups in food delivery aggregation and ghost kitchens in the next three years.  Why? Customers order once a week at most with Domino’s but order multiple times a week with Door Dash, Grub Hub, and PostMates.  While these competitors don’t even have their own kitchens, they are owning the customer experience and the customer.  Many food delivery sites pair up with ghost kitchens, which prepare a wide range of genres in separately branded store fronts for scale.   With more than $2B raised by these food aggregators and ghost kitchens, Domino’s faces the company’s biggest challenge for relevance and mindshare with customers. 

With 50 mega value chains across multiple industries, 100 organizations will emerge as duopolies.  Over 90% of the Fortune 500 by 2050 will be merged, acquired, or go bankrupt as quadrillions of capital flows exchange hands.   Given the massive amounts of capital to fund new DDN startups as monopolies on Day 1, today’s CEO plays against a stacked deck with limited options to achieve sustainable growth as their investors bet against them.  Success will require CEO’s to build DDNs, partner in existing DDN’s, or be punished for not participating in these DDNS. 

Your POV.

Will you be ready for the new decade?  What uber trends do you see for 2020?   Add your comments to the blog or reach me via email: R (at) ConstellationR (dot) com or R (at) SoftwareInsider (dot) org.

Please let us know if you need help with your AI and Digital Business transformation efforts. Here’s how we can assist:

  • Developing your digital business strategy
  • Connecting with other pioneers
  • Sharing best practices
  • Vendor selection
  • Implementation partner selection
  • Providing contract negotiations and software licensing support
  • Demystifying software licensing

Reprints can be purchased through Constellation Research, Inc. To request official reprints in PDF format, please contact Sales .

Resources And Related Research

Disclosures

Although we work closely with many mega software vendors, we want you to trust us. For the full disclosure policy,stay tuned for the full client list on the Constellation Research website. * Not responsible for any factual errors or omissions.  However, happy to correct any errors upon email receipt.

Constellation Research recommends that readers consult a stock professional for their investment guidance. Investors should understand the potential conflicts of interest analysts might face. Constellation does not underwrite or own the securities of the companies the analysts cover. Analysts themselves sometimes own stocks in the companies they cover—either directly or indirectly, such as through employee stock-purchase pools in which they and their colleagues participate.

As a general matter, investors should not rely solely on an analyst's recommendation when deciding whether to buy, hold, or sell a stock. Instead, they should also do their own research—such as reading the prospectus for new companies or for public companies, the quarterly and annual reports filed with the SEC—to confirm whether a particular investment is appropriate for them in light of their individual financial circumstances.

Copyright © 2001 – 2019 R Wang and Insider Associates, LLC All rights reserved.

Contact the Sales team to purchase this report on a a la carte basis or join the Constellation Executive Network

Cupertino Ray Wang Ray R Wang @harvardbiz #digital #disruptingdigital Apps Strategy Boardroom Priorities Brand Promises CDO CEO Chief Digital Officer Chief Executive Officer Chief Financial Officer Chief HR Officer Chief Information Officer Chief Marketing Officer Chief People Officer Chief Technology Officer CIO CMO CTO Data to Decisions digital artisans Digital Business Digital CXO's Digital Disruption Digital Proficiency digital strategy digital transformation DigitalBiz digitaltransformation disrupting digital Disrupting Digital Business disruptive disruptive business models Disruptive Tech Life Cycle disruptive technology enterprise applications enterprise apps Enterprise apps strategy Enterprise Software Intention Driven mass personalization Mass Personalization At Scale Monday's Musings network economy News Analysis P2P P2P Networks People to People R "Ray" Wang; rwang0 Software Insider SoftwareInsider #WEF Attention Economy CHRO Constellation Research CXO Economics Economy Global Economy Harvard Business Review Press World Economic Forum #Davos2016 #WEFTalks cfo Chief Creative Officer Chief Data Officer Chief Information Security Officer Chief Procurement Officer Chief Revenue Officer Chief Sales Officer Chief Security Officer Chief Service Officer Davos Fourth Industrial Revolution @FT artificial intelligence man vs machine Wipro event report Featured future of work finance Transformation of Finance health healthcare #ENV16 2016 Big Data blockchain blockchain technology bots business disruption business transformation chatbots Chris Capossela Cloud Cloud Platform Consumer Tech Conversations as a Platform Cortana crm; CustExp customer engagement customer experience customer relationship management digital assistants financial services Lillian Rincon machine learning Microsoft Microsoft Delve Microsoft Dynamics Microsoft Envision Microsoft Office Microsoft Office 365 Natalie McCullough Office Graph People Analytics Satya Nadella user conference user event vendor events vendor strategy Volometrix ad networks audience acquisition audience development Brand brand promise brand strategy content content management creative to commerce customer care customer service CXM data driven digital commerce Digital Marketing Digital Marketing Transformation disruptive technologies Engagement marketing marketing agencies marketing automation marketing execution Marketing Strategy Peer to Peer Programmatic ROI Chief Operating Officer COO accounting appsexchange cloud computing Enterprise Resource Planning ERP financial management FinancialForce Research Summary NetSuite PaaS platform as a service user experience ux analytics data quality data services data stewardship master data Reltio big ideas DoubleDutch event marketing live engagement marketing AI Cognitive Computing HOLMES Wipro HOLMES #IOT Chief Customer Officer CX CXP Internet of Things Big Data Business Models data 2XU acquisition acquisitions adidas Adobe Amazon Amazon Web Services American Golf Anya Hindmarch AppExchange Avangate Avenue B2B B2C B2C E-commerce Bare Escentuals Brooks Brooks Brothers Browns Burton Callaway campaign to commerce carters's Clarins Cloud Wars Cole Haan Columbia Commerce Commerce Cloud content management system Converse Corporate Social Responsibility Cortefiel Crabtree & Evelyn crocs customer relationship management (CRM) Deckers Brands Demandware Digital River e-commerce ecco Elastic Path EMU Australia Ethan Allen Fila Gaiam Godiva GoPro Gore HotTopic House of Fraser Hurley IBM IBM Smarter Commerce Jack Wolfskin Jewlery Television JoAnn Karstad kate spade Kiehl's L'Oreal Labelux Lacoste Lancome Land's End Liebeskind Life is Good London Drugs Lush Fresh M. Gemi M&S Marc O'Polo Matrix Commerce mergers mergers and acquisitions Michael Hill Micheal's mothercare Mountain Hard Wear NewBalance Nine West OVS Pacsun Panasonic Pandora PartyCity Pentland Perry Ellis Picard Pier1 Imports Poppin Puma Quicksilver r Samsonite Reitmans Rituals Rockport Roots S.Olive Scotch & Soda Shopify Skis.com Skullcandy Sleepys Solstice Sorel Space.NK Speedo Stoenwall Kitchen Tory Burch Traeger Trina Turk True Religion UGG Urban Decay Vibram Vineyard Vines analysis BREXIT CoIT CoIT and the New CSuite Corporate Digital Divide Digital Divide Digital privacy Digital safety Next Gen Customer Experience Next Gen CXP PESTEL Technology Optimization Christian right Domestic gun violence gun violence Hate speech Hollywood Violence Hollywood’s influence Homophobia Islamic terrorism Islamic Terrrism Isolationism of 2nd generation Muslims jobs Lack of jobs Mental health coverage orlando Personal Log Pulse radical islamic terror religious right society Video game violence Cloud suites Oracle DemandCaster manufacturing Manufacturing Cloud Microsoft Dynamics AX MPS Plex Plex Systems s&op supply chain supply chain orchestration supply chain planning suppy chain management co creation co innovation Consumerization of IT design phase design thinking disrputing digital Enterprise Business Apps Enterprise Business Apps Vendors Infor Infor Digital board room C-Suite Chief Collaboration Officer early adopters future future of business Futurist Futurist framework enterprise mobile Enterprise Mobile Management mobile Mobile Biz mobile device management Mobile Enterprise mobile experience Mobile Management Mobile OS Mobile Security Mobile strategy Mobility Samsung Samsung Galaxy Samsung Galaxy Note7 alibaba Apple Augmented Humanity Baidu Facebook Google QQ recommendation engines sina tabao Tuesday's Tip Yahoo! Yandex @msignite Adobe Marketing Club alliances data models Marketing Cloud MIcroosft Cortana Analytics Suite Microsoft Azure Microsoft Dynamics 365 Microsoft Ignite partners partnerships SalesForce.com Shantanu Narayen 3D Printing adaptive cyber security anticipatory analytics API Management API Orchestration AstroChart Augemented Reality autonomous vehicles bio batteries communications platforms complex event processing crypto currencies data lakes digital monetization drones faceted search flexible displays fog computing IOT infrastructure IOT smart services Low code platforms Micro-services architecture mobile apps neural networks No code platforms Social Business stem cells Unified Communications universal digital identities Virtual agents virtual reality Wearables agile dev ops BPO business process outsourcing business trends Corporate Strategy Corporate Vision coworking spaces CSR Customer Success Management Data2Decisions demand driven networks digital ecosystem networks digital ethics enterprise strategy Gamification gig economy inclusion programs innovation centers job sharing robotic process automation sales by design situational awareness business impact business strategy Corporate Vision And Strategy Donald J Trump Economic Elections 2016 Environmental Legislative Political Societal Technological Washington DC Amazon EC2 Cisco Cloud options Cloud Security Data center DCIM hyperscale data centers IaaS infrastructure Infrastructure as a Service Microsoft Azure Services Platform open compute project Private Cloud Private clouds public cloud SDDC Trends Amazon.com cadence digital exhaust digital footprint immersive experiences orchestration of trust value exchange #Davos17 #Davos2017 #WEF17 #WEF2017 Dynamic Leadership leadership strategy 2017 adoption cause innovation meritocracy partner ecosystems Software Ecosystems software trends software vendors technology adoption technology budgets technology vendors user strategy value Vendor Selection VICEMAP #GCPNext #GoogleNext17 cost reduction enterprise class Google Apps Engine Google Cloud Platform Google Docs Google Drive GoogleNext @dhinchcliffe Dion Hinchcliffe e20 Enterprise 2.0 enterprise architecture Enterprise Irregulars Press Release robotic proces automation @ensono case study Constellation Academy Enterprise financial apps HCM HR HR Tech WorkDay #bigdata B2B E-commerce CEP channels cognitive reckoning collaboration context customer experience management Engagement Apps Personalization personalization at scale post sale Post sales service orchestrated engagement #FFComm17 ADP ASC606 force.com Force.com platform IFRS15 bitcoin Constellation ShortList™ synchronous ledgers dell Dell Boomi informatica integration Integration Platform As A Service iPaaS Jitterbit Mulesoft OptionEase SnapLogic Constellation Connected Enterprise Event Invitation Content Marketing context marketing data privacy demand generation #BT150 BT-150 Business Models Change Agents Chief Innovation Officer Constellation BT-150 Executive Profiles transformation life lessons thanks Thanksgiving Infinite Ambient Orchestration Research Report best practices C3 IOT cloud integration digital enterprise platforms indirect access lessons learned license policy Maintenance modernization Next Gen Apps next generation Next generation apps SAP SAP ERP SAP Fiori SAP Leonardo SAP User Group UK & Ireland SAUG SAUGSummit UKISUG Connect Uptake Software Assassin's Creed Free Will Ghost In The Shell Person of Interest The Matrix #Davos18 #Davos2018 #sharedfutures #WEF18 #WEF2018 #ML autonomous database FedEx last-mile UJET Unacast UPS #MSBizApps 2018 analyst event app dev application development application extension and usability architecture business intelligence deployment options digital feedback loops human capital management Microsoft Biz Apps MIcrosoft Dynamics CRM MIcrosoft Dynamics ERP MIcrosoft Dynamics365 SasS #MWC18 5G Android Google Assistant Huawei intel Mobile World Congress NEC Qualcomm Samsung Galaxy S9 Amazon AR View MIT ethics growth jump start growth Bigchain DB Chain Core Ethereum Hyperledger Fabric IOTA LISK OpenChain Quorum. R3 Corda Ripple @serviceNow #Know18 CSM Customer Service Management DevOps Frank Slootman Fred Luddy ITSM John Donahoe Magento @GCPCloud @googlecloud #GoogleNext18 Auto ML Diane Greene Google Enterprise security #OurDigitalFuture #StandUp4HumanRights human rights United Nations $ADBE $APPL $GOOG $NFLX $SNOW $TSLA 018 AMZN big tech FB @airtable @aws @workato 2018 Enterpries Awards Accenture Andy Jassy Capgemini Data Catalog Experience Management GE GE Digital Github hcl Jensen Huang Maersk Marketo Mendix nVidia PE Firms private equity salesforce Siemens TCS Toilet Seat Logo Work Coordination Platforms Workspan XM #NRF2019 2019 National Retail Federation The Big Show account based strategy account categorization framework sales sales effectiveness sales strategies #davos19 #davos2019 #wef19 #wef2019 debt crisis Equal oppoortunity equality expectations gap Globalization 4.0 #IBMThink #Think2019 Cyber security data driven digital network Digital Duopolies Digital Ecosystems digital monopolies LinuxOne Multicloud retail #appleevent Apple Arcade Apple Card Apple News+ Apple TV+ #EpicorInsights19 Epicor Epicor Insights Epicor Software Steve Murphy #OracleMBX Cloud ERP Enteprise Resource Planning Mark Hurd Steven Miranda data-driven digital networks extreme EBITDA post-digital era short-termism #FFCommLive19 Dan Brown inventory management order management revenue recognition service billing subscription billing subscription revenues Tod Nielsen customer data platform Sales Cloud sales force automation Service Cloud #DF19 ambient experiences Dreamforce #davos2020 #davos20 #wef20 #wef2020 Andrew Neuman Aneel Bhusri Ascension Heatlh CISO datagrail Docker Foldable Phones Gemalto Gig Economy for the Enterprise Google Cloud Intel Corporation Invoca Kubernetes Looker Marc Benioff Mark Zuckerberg Miarantis outreach Royole Sales Engagement Platforms Sheryl Sandberg Sisu SmartSheet Splunk Tata Consulting Services Thales Group Thomas Kurian WeWork Zoho #Futureof2020 2020 Authentic authentic business authenticity autonomous decade autonomus business roundtable centralized vs decentralized Culture of Abundance Cutlure of Scarcity data transformation deep fakes Digital duoploies Future of 2020 human ingenuity intelligent automation mutual self interest open vs closed Privacy Privacy Rights property right shareholder capitalism social injustice stakeholder capitalism Us Vs China